Hard-liner Saeed Jalili Leads in Early Iran Presidential Poll Results: Report

Saeed Jalili, a staunch supporter of Iran’s supreme leader, has taken a slight lead over the only moderate candidate as more votes are counted in a tightly controlled snap presidential election. This election comes amid growing public frustration and pressure from Western countries. Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator and ultraconservative candidate, has received over 4.26 million votes out of more than 10.3 million ballots counted so far. His moderate opponent, lawmaker Massoud Pezeshkian, has garnered about 4.24 million votes, according to Interior Ministry official Mohsen Eslami on state TV.

Reports suggest that voter turnout was around 40%, which is lower than what Iran’s clerical leaders had hoped for. Witnesses in Tehran and other cities noted that polling stations were not crowded. Iran’s Tasnim news agency mentioned that a run-off election is “very likely” to determine the next president after the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash.

This election is happening during a time of increased regional tension due to the conflict between Israel and Iranian allies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Additionally, there is growing Western pressure on Iran over its rapidly advancing nuclear program.

While the election is not expected to bring significant changes to Iran’s policies, the outcome could affect the succession of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the 85-year-old supreme leader who has been in power since 1989. The clerical establishment aimed for a high voter turnout to counter a legitimacy crisis caused by public dissatisfaction with economic hardships and restrictions on political and social freedoms.

The new president is not expected to make major changes to Iran’s nuclear program or its support for militia groups in the Middle East, as Khamenei has the final say on major state matters. However, the president manages the day-to-day operations of the government and can influence the tone of Iran’s foreign and domestic policies.

Jalili, a former diplomat, identifies as a devout believer in “velayat-e faqih,” or rule by supreme jurisprudence, which is the foundation of Iran’s Islamic government and Khamenei’s top position.

Limited Choices

Iran’s presidential election features a limited selection of candidates: three hardliners and one low-profile moderate loyal to the supreme leader. A hardline watchdog body approved only six candidates from an initial pool of 80, and two hardline candidates later dropped out. Pezeshkian is supported by the reformist camp, which has been largely marginalized in recent years.

Critics of Iran’s clerical rule argue that low voter turnouts in recent years indicate a decline in the system’s legitimacy. Turnout was 48% in the 2021 presidential election, and a record low of 41% of people voted in a parliamentary election in March.

According to unconfirmed reports, the election is likely heading to a second round, with Jalili and Pezeshkian competing in a run-off. If no candidate wins at least 50% plus one vote from all ballots cast, including blank votes, a run-off between the top two candidates will be held on the first Friday after the results are declared.

All candidates have promised to revive the struggling economy, which has been plagued by mismanagement, state corruption, and sanctions re-imposed since 2018 after the United States withdrew from Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal with six world powers.

“I think Jalili is the only candidate who has addressed issues like justice, fighting corruption, and valuing the poor. Most importantly, he does not tie Iran’s foreign policy to the nuclear deal,” said Farzan, a 45-year-old artist from Karaj.

Divided Voters

Pezeshkian supports Iran’s theocratic rule but advocates for better relations with the West, economic reforms, social liberalization, and political pluralism. “We will respect the hijab law, but there should never be any intrusive or inhumane behavior toward women,” Pezeshkian said after casting his vote. He was referring to the death of Mahsa Amini, a young Kurdish woman, in 2022 while in morality police custody for allegedly violating the mandatory Islamic dress code.

Amini’s death sparked widespread unrest, leading to the largest show of opposition to Iran’s clerical rulers in years. Pezeshkian has tried to rekindle the enthusiasm of reform-minded voters who have largely stayed away from the polls in the past four years, as the mostly young population chafes at political and social restrictions. He could also benefit from his rivals’ failure to consolidate the hardline vote.

“I feel Pezeshkian represents both traditional and liberal thoughts,” said Pirouz, a 45-year-old architect who had planned to boycott the vote until learning more about Pezeshkian’s plans.

In recent weeks, Iranians have widely used the hashtag #ElectionCircus on X, with some activists at home and abroad calling for a boycott, arguing that a high turnout would only serve to legitimize the Islamic Republic.

“The youth were punished, young girls were killed on the streets. We can’t easily move on from that. After all that happened, it’s unconscionable to vote,” said 55-year-old writer Shahrzad Afrasheh.

During the 2022/23 protests, more than 500 people, including 71 minors, were killed, hundreds were injured, and thousands were arrested, according to rights groups.