Behind Modi’s Putin Hug: Is India Betting on Trump Winning in November?

The recent visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Russia has sparked controversy, with both the US and Ukraine expressing disapproval. Despite the criticism, analysts believe that the “bad optics” may soon be forgotten. But what drove Modi’s decision to visit Russia, and what does it mean for India’s relations with the US?

When Modi meets a male world leader, a bear hug is almost inevitable. However, his recent embrace with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow has drawn strong criticism from Washington and Kyiv. The US National Security Adviser cautioned that strong ties with Russia are a “bad bet” for India, while the State Department spokesperson expressed concern about India’s relations with Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was more direct, calling the visit a “huge disappointment” and a “devastating blow to peace efforts.”

So, did India miscalculate the geopolitical response to Modi’s trip? Has the visit to Moscow and the public show of warmth towards Putin damaged India’s relations with the US? Analysts suggest that the answer lies in a combination of history, New Delhi’s confidence in its ability to juggle multiple complex relations, and a bet that former US President Donald Trump might return to power and soften Washington’s tough stance against Russia.

Modi’s administration is increasingly convinced that Trump might return to power in November, and a Trump win would ease the pressure on New Delhi to turn away from Moscow. A second Trump administration would likely care less about the optics of Russia-India ties, allowing India to maintain its relationship with Russia. India-Russia relations have a long history, with Russia being India’s biggest supplier of weapons and oil. India has also increased its purchase of Russian crude, which has led to a significant increase in trade between the two countries.

However, India has also strengthened its ties with the West, especially the US, which it sees as essential to warding off the perceived threat from China’s rise. India’s defence dependence on Russia is lessening as it buys most new weapons systems from the US or European manufacturers. India has insisted that it is exercising its strategic autonomy, but the US ambassador to India, Eric Garcetti, pushed back, saying that there is no such thing as strategic autonomy during a conflict.

The Russia trip also coincided with other sources of friction between India and the US, including allegations of an Indian government agent trying to orchestrate the assassination of a US national and concerns about India’s civil rights landscape. However, analysts say that India and Modi have enough cards in their hands to be able to weather niggles in their relationship.

For all the poor optics of Modi’s Russia visit, those in the know in the US would have been “least surprised” by the trip. The strategic basis for the India-US relationship is sound, and Modi’s visit does not undercut that basis. India is expected to host a summit of the Quad later this year, which consists of Australia, India, Japan, and the US, and will also participate in a summit of the BRICS grouping.

Whether Modi returns to Russia for a second time in three months or skips that meet could point to just how much India is willing to test ties with the US. For now, India and the US know that they need each other too much to risk upsetting their partnership. “New Delhi and Washington will understand each other’s compulsions,” said Seema Sirohi, a Washington, DC-based journalist and analyst. “And the larger US-India relationship is far too important to be derailed by one speed bump.”

Historical Context:

The article mentions the historical context of India-Russia relations, which dates back to the Soviet era. Russia has been India’s biggest supplier of weapons and oil, and India has increased its purchase of Russian crude, leading to a significant increase in trade between the two countries. Additionally, India has been diversifying its defense purchases, buying new weapons systems from the US or European manufacturers, reducing its dependence on Russia.

The article also mentions the current geopolitical landscape, where India is trying to balance its relationships with the US, Russia, and China. India sees the US as essential to warding off the perceived threat from China’s rise, while maintaining its relationship with Russia.

Summary in Bullet Points:

• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Russia sparked controversy, with the US and Ukraine expressing disapproval. • Modi’s administration believes that former US President Donald Trump might return to power in November and ease pressure on India to turn away from Moscow. • A second Trump administration would likely care less about the optics of Russia-India ties, allowing India to maintain its relationship with Russia. • India-Russia relations have a long history, with Russia being India’s biggest supplier of weapons and oil. • India has increased its purchase of Russian crude, leading to a significant increase in trade between the two countries. • India has also strengthened its ties with the West, especially the US, which it sees as essential to warding off the perceived threat from China’s rise. • India’s defense dependence on Russia is lessening as it buys most new weapons systems from the US or European manufacturers. • The Russia trip coincided with other sources of friction between India and the US, including allegations of an Indian government agent trying to orchestrate the assassination of a US national and concerns about India’s civil rights landscape. • Analysts say that India and Modi have enough cards in their hands to be able to weather niggles in their relationship. • The strategic basis for the India-US relationship is sound, and Modi’s visit does not undercut that basis. • India is expected to host a summit of the Quad later this year, which consists of Australia, India, Japan, and the US, and will also participate in a summit of the BRICS grouping. • Whether Modi returns to Russia for a second time in three months or skips that meet could point to just how much India is willing to test ties with the US. • For now, India and the US know that they need each other too much to risk upsetting their partnership.