The Road to a Resistance Victory in Myanmar

In Myanmar’s war-torn borderlands, a pattern is emerging. The Myanmar Army is withdrawing from rural areas and regrouping in urban centers, protected by air power, artillery, and ammunition supplies. This “porcupine strategy” is a response to eight months of defeats at the hands of ethnic minority insurgent armies. The strategy offers three advantages: it allows the opposition to attack the army in urban areas where the army has an advantage, maintains control over the majority of the population, and provides a foundation for fresh elections.

The Myanmar Army’s grip on urban areas is crucial for its survival. The junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, is under pressure, and the army’s ability to hold on to power will depend on its ability to sustain a military standoff. However, the army’s situation is precarious, and it may be overwhelmed by the resistance forces.

The resistance forces, led by the National Unity Government (NUG), need to adopt a strategy to defeat the army. Two approaches are possible: a direct approach, where they attack urban centers, or an indirect approach, where they target the army’s supply lines and communication networks. The indirect approach is more likely to succeed, as it would allow the resistance forces to avoid direct confrontation with the army’s superior firepower.

The ethnic minority groups, such as the Kachin, Karen, Ta’ang, and Rakhine, will also play a crucial role in shaping the outcome. They need to decide whether to support the NUG or negotiate with the junta. If they support the NUG, they could tip the balance in favor of the resistance forces. However, if they negotiate with the junta, they may be able to secure autonomy for their regions.

The Myanmar Army’s Achilles’ heel is its manpower shortage. It has a persistent problem of under-strength infantry battalions, and its conscription efforts have been unsuccessful. The army’s combat-capable strength is estimated to be between 70,000 and 90,000 troops, which is much lower than the advertised figure. The army’s inability to surrender territory and regroup its forces has exacerbated the problem.

The resistance forces could target the army’s supply lines and communication networks, which would further exacerbate the army’s manpower crisis. However, this strategy is not guaranteed to succeed, and the outcome of the conflict is uncertain. The key to the resistance forces’ success will be their ability to adopt a effective strategy and secure the support of the ethnic minority groups.

Key Points:

• The Myanmar Army is withdrawing from rural areas and regrouping in urban centers.
• The “porcupine strategy” offers three advantages: it allows the opposition to attack the army in urban areas, maintains control over the majority of the population, and provides a foundation for fresh elections.
• The resistance forces need to adopt a strategy to defeat the army, and two approaches are possible: a direct approach or an indirect approach.
• The indirect approach is more likely to succeed, as it would allow the resistance forces to avoid direct confrontation with the army’s superior firepower.
• The ethnic minority groups will play a crucial role in shaping the outcome, and they need to decide whether to support the NUG or negotiate with the junta.
• The Myanmar Army’s Achilles’ heel is its manpower shortage, and its conscription efforts have been unsuccessful.
• The resistance forces could target the army’s supply lines and communication networks, which would further exacerbate the army’s manpower crisis.

Historical Context:

Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, has a long history of conflict and instability. The country gained independence from British colonial rule in 1948, but it was soon plagued by civil wars and military coups. In 1962, a military coup led by General Ne Win established a military dictatorship that ruled the country for nearly 50 years. In 2011, the military junta transitioned to a semi-civilian government, but the military still maintained significant power and influence. In 2021, the military seized power in a coup, overthrowing the democratically-elected government and sparking widespread protests and armed resistance.

The current conflict in Myanmar is a result of the military’s brutal suppression of the protests and the resistance movement. The National Unity Government (NUG), a coalition of ethnic minority groups and democratic forces, has been fighting against the military junta since 2021. The conflict has resulted in thousands of deaths, displacement of hundreds of thousands of people, and widespread human rights abuses.

Summary in Bullet Points:

• The Myanmar Army is withdrawing from rural areas and regrouping in urban centers, adopting a “porcupine strategy” to maintain control over the majority of the population and provide a foundation for fresh elections. • The resistance forces, led by the NUG, need to adopt a strategy to defeat the army, with two possible approaches: a direct approach, attacking urban centers, or an indirect approach, targeting the army’s supply lines and communication networks. • The indirect approach is more likely to succeed, as it would allow the resistance forces to avoid direct confrontation with the army’s superior firepower. • The ethnic minority groups, such as the Kachin, Karen, Ta’ang, and Rakhine, will play a crucial role in shaping the outcome, and they need to decide whether to support the NUG or negotiate with the junta. • The Myanmar Army’s Achilles’ heel is its manpower shortage, and its conscription efforts have been unsuccessful. • The resistance forces could target the army’s supply lines and communication networks, which would further exacerbate the army’s manpower crisis. • The outcome of the conflict is uncertain, and the key to the resistance forces’ success will be their ability to adopt an effective strategy and secure the support of the ethnic minority groups.