Iran’s Presidential Candidates Face Voter Apathy Challenge

Iran’s upcoming presidential run-off election on July 5 is seeing two main contenders: a staunch anti-Westerner and a moderate candidate. Both are finding it hard to energize voters who seem uninterested in a race that feels tightly controlled.

In the first round of voting on June 28, over 60% of voters chose not to participate. This low turnout followed the death of the previous president, Ebrahim Raisi, in a helicopter crash. Critics of the government view this as a sign of no confidence in the Islamic Republic. The run-off will be between Massoud Pezeshkian, a moderate lawmaker, and Saeed Jalili, a former member of the Revolutionary Guards.

Both candidates are trying to win over voters with different promises. Jalili is pushing for strict foreign and domestic policies, while Pezeshkian is advocating for more social and political freedoms. Both also promise to fix the economy, which has been suffering from poor management, corruption, and sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear program.

The government needs a high voter turnout to maintain its credibility, especially with ongoing regional tensions and Western pressure over its nuclear activities. However, more and more Iranians have been skipping elections in recent years. The previous low turnout was 41% in a parliamentary election in March, and Raisi won the 2021 presidential election with about 49% turnout after many strong candidates were disqualified.

“A clash of visions”

Ali Vaez from the International Crisis Group said, “The run-off is a clash of visions: Jalili’s hardline stance versus Pezeshkian’s call for moderation and change.” He added that Pezeshkian needs to overcome voter apathy and get support from the silent majority to win.

The new president is not expected to make major changes to Iran’s nuclear policy or its support for militia groups in the Middle East, as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei makes the key decisions. However, the president can influence the tone of domestic and foreign policies. With Khamenei being 85 years old, the next president will play a crucial role in choosing his successor. Insiders say Khamenei wants a loyal president to ensure a smooth transition.

Both candidates are loyal to Iran’s theocratic rule, but analysts believe Jalili’s win could lead to more aggressive policies. On the other hand, Pezeshkian’s victory might lead to a more pragmatic foreign policy, ease tensions in nuclear negotiations, and improve chances for social and political reforms.

To win, Pezeshkian needs to attract votes from supporters of hardline parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who came third in the first round. He also needs to mobilize young voters who are frustrated with political and social restrictions.

Gregory Brew from Eurasia Group said, “Given Jalili’s extremism, it’s possible that more moderate conservative voters who supported Qalibaf will either vote for Pezeshkian or stay home next Friday.”

Pezeshkian is backed by the reformist faction, which has been sidelined in recent years. His campaign focuses on the fear of a worse outcome. Mehrshad, a 34-year-old teacher in Tehran, said, “I will vote this time because Jalili’s presidency means more restrictions. This is choosing between bad and worse.”

However, Pezeshkian is not expected to gain much support from reform-minded Iranians who have stayed away from the polls for the last four years. Farzaneh, a university student in Yazd, said, “Pezeshkian is part of the establishment. He will follow Khamenei’s orders. Let the world know that Iranians do not want the Islamic Republic. I will not vote.”

Activists and opposition groups are calling for a boycott, using the hashtag #ElectionCircus on social media platform X.