Hemant Soren’s Bail: A Boost for JMM Ahead of Assembly Elections

Former Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren’s bail on Friday has given a significant boost to the JMM-led coalition government as they prepare for the upcoming Assembly elections later this year.

Before his arrest in January 2023, Soren stepped down from his position, allowing Champai Soren to become the new Chief Minister. Following his arrest, Soren’s wife, Kalpana Soren, emerged as the prominent face of the JMM. Her effective public speaking helped her connect with the people of Jharkhand, especially women, and she actively participated in national campaigns for the INDIA bloc. Kalpana also won the by-election in Gandey, held alongside the Lok Sabha elections, by a margin of 26,000 votes.

In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the JMM-led coalition secured six seats. The JMM won three seats, while the Congress secured two. The BJP won seven seats, and its ally, the All Jharkhand Students’ Union, got one. However, the JMM coalition won all five seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes (ST), which was a significant setback for the BJP.

The BJP also lost the tribal-dominated Dumka seat, where they had fielded Soren’s sister-in-law, Sita Soren, by 22,000 votes. This loss highlighted the strong influence the JMM and its allies have in the tribal regions of the state, which seems to have grown stronger after Soren’s arrest.

A BJP leader acknowledged that the party struggled in the tribal seats during the Lok Sabha elections. He emphasized that the BJP’s strategy for the 28 tribal seats in the Assembly elections would be crucial.

Soren’s release from jail adds a new dimension to the political landscape, with the JMM likely to capitalize on the sympathy factor. A JMM leader admitted that they initially hoped Soren would remain in jail until the Assembly elections, allowing them to highlight the “injustice” he faced. They had even drawn parallels between Soren and Jesuit priest and rights activist Stan Swamy, who died in custody while facing charges in the Bhima Koregaon case. Both were seen as victims of injustice for standing up for oppressed communities. Now that Soren is out, the party will need to adjust its strategy.

Regarding Kalpana Soren’s future role, a party leader mentioned that she might receive a Cabinet position. The Enforcement Directorate’s response to Soren’s bail remains uncertain, and they might challenge it in higher courts or bring new charges against him. Regardless of the situation, Kalpana Soren will remain active in politics.

In the BJP camp, there is a recognition that their campaign strategy needs to be revised in light of Soren’s bail. The party’s Jharkhand Assembly election in-charges, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and Union Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, are expected to develop a robust strategy. However, a BJP leader admitted that Soren’s release was a setback to their narrative. He noted that the tribal population would question how Soren obtained bail and might also question the investigation process.

Officially, the BJP maintained a composed stance. BJP spokesperson Binay Singh stated, “The law has taken its course, and we respect that.”