Should We Be Concerned About a Summer COVID Surge? Understanding the New FLiRT Variants

Historical Context

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, has been a global health crisis since its emergence in late 2019. The virus has undergone numerous mutations, leading to various waves of infections worldwide. The Omicron variant, which emerged in late 2021, marked a significant shift due to its high transmissibility. As of 2023, new subvariants continue to evolve, influencing the pattern of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations.

Current Situation

The United States, United Kingdom, and Germany are experiencing mild increases in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations due to new FLiRT variants. According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), emergency room visits in the US rose by over 23% from June 16 to June 22. Similarly, COVID-related deaths increased by 14.3%, although they still constitute a small percentage (0.8%) of all deaths in the US. In the UK, COVID hospitalizations in England increased by around 20% in June.

Expert Opinions

Ziyad Al-Aly, a COVID physician-scientist at Washington University in St. Louis, emphasizes the importance of taking the rise in hospitalizations seriously. He notes that the uptick in the US followed a COVID wave in Singapore, and many countries are not adequately tracking these metrics, leaving us “flying blind.”

Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, points out that while current hospitalizations are below last winter’s levels, the pattern of COVID surges is likely to continue as SARS-CoV-2 will be with us for generations. He also notes that the severity of infections appears to be lower than earlier in the pandemic.

FLiRT COVID Variants

The recent increase in COVID cases is attributed to new subvariants known as FLiRTs, which are descendants of the JN.1 variant (a descendant of Omicron). These include KP.2, KP.3, and JN.1.7.1. The name FLiRT comes from specific mutations: Furin-like cleavage site, L452R, and T478K. While there is no evidence that these variants are more harmful than previous ones, they may be more transmissible and immune-evasive.

Causes of the Summer Surge

The summer surge in COVID cases is likely due to declining population immunity. Immunity from infection or vaccination typically lasts four to six months. Therefore, immunity gained from winter infections or autumn vaccinations has waned. Most current hospitalizations in the UK involve older or vulnerable individuals, as they are the ones seeking medical care and being tested.

Hunter advises that older adults and those at higher risk should take extra precautions. He also warns that long COVID remains a possibility with new variants.

Summary

• Mild Increases in Cases: The US, UK, and Germany report mild upticks in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations due to new FLiRT variants.
• Expert Warnings: Experts stress the importance of monitoring and preparing for potential surges.
• FLiRT Variants: New subvariants (KP.2, KP.3, JN.1.7.1) are driving the increase in cases.
• Declining Immunity: Population immunity is waning, contributing to the rise in cases.
• Precautions for Vulnerable Groups: Older adults and high-risk individuals should take extra precautions to prevent infection.

This information is crucial for students preparing for competitive exams, as it provides a comprehensive understanding of the current COVID-19 situation, the role of new variants, and the importance of ongoing vigilance and preparedness.