Macron’s Party Faces Defeat as France’s Far Right Gains Ground

Emmanuel Macron surprised the nation and even some of his allies by calling for early elections.

On Sunday, France’s far-right party was looking at a historic opportunity to form a government and secure the prime minister’s position after winning the first round of legislative elections. President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist party came in third.

However, it was still uncertain if Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party would win the absolute majority of seats needed in the new National Assembly in the second round on July 7. An absolute majority is required for Le Pen’s protégé, Jordan Bardella, 28, to become prime minister.

Macron’s decision to call for early elections came after the RN defeated his centrist forces in the European Parliament elections this month. This risky move could backfire, as Macron’s alliance is now expected to win a much smaller minority in parliament, weakening his power for the remaining three years of his term.

French polling firms projected the RN would get 33.2-33.5 percent of the vote, compared to 28.1-28.5 percent for the left-wing New Popular Front alliance, and 21.0-22.1 percent for Macron’s centrist camp.

These projections suggested the RN could win a majority of seats in the 577-seat National Assembly after the second round. However, it was unclear if they would secure the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority.

The projections varied significantly, with Ipsos forecasting 230-280 seats, Ifop predicting 240-270, and Elabe being the only organization to suggest an absolute majority with 260-310 seats.

In a statement, Macron called for a “broad” alliance against the far right in the second round, which will involve run-off votes where there was no clear winner in the first round.

The left-wing alliance and Macron’s camp hope that tactical voting to prevent RN candidates from winning seats will stop them from achieving an absolute majority.

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who may have to resign after the second round, warned that the far right was now close to gaining power. He urged that the RN should not receive “a single vote” in the second round.

“We have seven days to save France from catastrophe,” said Raphael Glucksmann, a key figure in the left-wing alliance.

‘Prime Minister for All French’

With the French facing their most polarizing choices in recent history, voter turnout soared to 65 percent, much higher than the 47.5 percent turnout in the 2022 polls.

Macron said the high turnout in the first round showed “the importance of this vote for all our compatriots and the desire to clarify the political situation.”

The arrival of the anti-immigration and eurosceptic RN in government would mark a significant change in modern French history, being the first time a far-right force has taken power since World War II when the country was occupied by Nazi Germany.

“Nothing is won, and the second round is decisive,” Le Pen, who has long tried to distance the party from its extremist roots, told supporters.

“We need an absolute majority so that Jordan Bardella is named prime minister by Emmanuel Macron in eight days.”

Bardella expressed his desire to be the “prime minister for all French.”

This situation would create a tense period of “cohabitation” with Macron, who has vowed to serve out his term until 2027.

Bardella has stated he will only form a government if the RN wins an absolute majority in the elections.

‘Heavy Defeat’

The alternative could be months of political deadlock and negotiations to find a sustainable government that can survive no-confidence votes.

Hard-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon said Macron’s centrist alliance had suffered a “heavy and undisputable” defeat in the snap polls.

Risk analysis firm Eurasia Group said the RN now seemed “likely” to fall short of an absolute majority. France could face “at least 12 months with a rancorously blocked National Assembly and – at best – a technocratic government of ’national unity’ with limited capacity to govern,” it added.

Macron’s decision to call the snap vote created uncertainty in Europe’s second-biggest economy. The Paris stock exchange experienced its biggest monthly decline in two years in June, dropping by 6.4 percent, according to figures released on Friday.

The turmoil also risks undermining Macron’s status as an international leader, especially in his efforts to support Ukraine against the Russian invasion. He is scheduled to attend the NATO summit in Washington immediately after the second round.

French daily newspaper Liberation urged voters to unite to stop the far-right’s progress. “After the shock, form a block,” the newspaper’s Monday front page read.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)